• Payroll employment set a record in May, though the running 12-month total is trending down.
• The unemployment rate continues to track below the long-term average and claims for benefits are holding steady.
• Crude trades higher than it did this time last year, but fewer drilling rigs are operating.
• Readings from the Houston Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) suggest the economy is growing but at a much weaker pace than two years ago.
• Houston’s exports are rising, a trend that should continue based on recent global trade forecasts.
• Construction has picked up, both inside the City of Houston and in the suburbs.  
• Inflation has tapered off considerably since last year. 
• Airport traffic is setting records. 
• Home prices have stabilized. 
• The market continues to absorb Class A apartments, but rents have fallen as new supply outpaces demand.
• Sales tax collections are flat in nominal terms and down when adjusted for inflation.
• New vehicle sales are down slightly and this has halted the recent runup in prices.

In the following pages, the Partnership offers its insights into Houston’s economy at mid-year.

PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT

Metro Houston added 16,100 jobs in May. Total nonfarm payroll employment now stands at 3,452,600, which is 10,500 jobs over the previous record set in December ’23.

However, the pace of job growth has slowed. The metro area created 81,700 jobs in the 12 months ending May ’24. That compares with 135,000 for the comparable period in ’23. The region benefited from reopening early in the pandemic. After the initial hiring surge, a slowdown in job growth was expected. Recent gains still track above the long-term average of 70,000 jobs per year.

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

Metro Houston added 38,000 workers to its labor force in the first five months of the year. Over the past 12 months, 86,000 Houstonians have joined the ranks. The surge includes young adults seeking their first job, long-time Houstonians re-entering the labor market, and residents new to the region looking for work. In May, Houston’s labor force stood just shy of 3.7 million workers. The metro area now has a larger workforce than 36 states and the District of Columbia.

UNEMPLOYMENT

Houston saw a brief surge in unemployment earlier in the year, the rate reaching 4.6 percent in February. That reflected a seasonal pattern, the rate always rises 0.5 to 0.8 percentage points as workers hired for the holidays face layoffs in January and February. The rate has since settled to 4.0 percent this May, compared to 4.2 percent in May of last year. Over the past 20 years, the rate has tracked 4.0 percent or lower only 26 months, or less than 11 percent of the time.

INITIAL CLAIMS

Initial claims for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, have crept up. In January, they averaged 3,500 a week. Late May and early June, they averaged 4,500. Current filings are still below this time last year, when initial claims averaged 5,200 a week, and well below the pandemic peak of 65,000 in late April ’20.

The recent uptick reflects a seasonal pattern. Claims creep up every summer as educators whose contracts have expired file for benefits.  This summer’s filings account for 0.12 percent of the region’s 3.7 million workers.

CONTINUED CLAIMS

Continued claims filed by workers unemployed for a week or more inched up in May and are 4,300 higher than May ’23. However, continued claims remain well below the peak of 276,000 in July ’20. The recent bump suggests that workers who lose their jobs are experiencing some difficulty, albeit minor, in finding new employment. 

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Note: The geographic area referred to in this publication as “Houston,” "Houston Area” and “Metro Houston” is the ten-county Census designated metropolitan statistical area of Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX. The ten counties are: Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, San Jacinto, and Waller.